Talking next-generation avionics and ATM technology in San Diego

Posted by John McHale

Next-generation avionics and air traffic management technology that will improve fuel consumption, reduce runway incursions on the ground, and save lives in the air highlighted our inaugural Avionics USA conference in San Diego this week.
Next-generation avionics and air traffic management technology that will save money on aircraft fuel consumption, reduce runway incursions on the ground, and save lives in the air highlighted our inaugural Avionics USA conference in San Diego this week.

The show, which concluded on Tuesday, was the first expansion of our Avionics Amsterdam event. It was stressful launching a new event in the middle of economic downturn, but things went smoothly.

The last session held a healthy percentage of the opening session's attendance. That was due more to the nature of the topic -- technologies for reducing runway incursion -- than anything else. Runway incursion and electronic flight bags were the highest regarded portions of our European event, so we made sure we closed with them in San Diego.

However, I've yet to go to a conference where the last session topped the keynote in audience participation. This was year was no different, as Tim Tuttle, ATM program manager at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, kicked off our event with an excellent talk covering next-generation avionics technology and the future of the market from Boeing's perspective.

The down part of the week was that we began our conference the morning of the Air France crash over the Atlantic Ocean.

Rumors were swirling that it was due to an electrical failure on the plane. One commercial airframer said to me Monday morning: "John, it's very disturbing, these things shouldn't happen anymore.”

Maybe it didn't as there are reports on that Air France received bomb threats just before the crash.

Regardless the gentleman was right. It's very disturbing.

NASA 2010 budget request shows increase over 2009

Posted by John McHale

At first glance the proposed 2010 budget request from NASA looks promising. The requested amount is $18.686 billion and includes increased funding for human spaceflight programs such as the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, which includes avionics technology investment.

Posted by John McHale

At first glance the proposed 2010 budget request from NASA looks promising. The requested amount is $18.686 billion and includes increased funding for human spaceflight programs such as the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, which includes avionics technology investment.

This is a "five percent increase from the 2009 Omnibus Appropriations Act," according to a statement by acting NASA Administrator Christopher Scolese. He adds that the budget supports the "goal of returning Americans to the moon and exploring other destinations." Currently the request calls for $3.963 billion for exploration compared to $3.505 in the 2009 request.

The space shuttle request is for about $3.157 billion for next year but scheduled to be zero by 2013. The Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle for request for 2010 is at $1.383 billion and scheduled to steadily increase the next two years as the shuttle retires. A funding request of $1.415 billion was made for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle for 2010.

According to NASA the Obama Administration will resubmit the exploration request after the independent review of planned U.S. human space flight activities is complete. President Obama announced the formation of the review earlier this month.

According to an administration release the review will be conducted by panel of experts led by Norman Augustine, the former chief executive officer of Lockheed Martin. The "Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans" is to examine ongoing and planned NASA "development activities, as well as potential alternatives, and present options for advancing a safe, innovative, affordable, and sustainable human space flight program in the years following space shuttle retirement."

In a story in USA Today, the administration is even considering a former astronaut to head NASA -- retired Marine Maj. Gen. Charles Bolden.

I'm glad human space flight is getting so much attention. Manned space programs are what make the public interested which in turn persuades Congress to release more dollars for spaceflight. The continued success of the Chinese space program may also prove persuasive, especially if they get to the Moon before we get back there...

For more on the 2010 NASA budget request, visit http://www.nasa.gov/news/budget/index.html.

Aviation industry downturn may have a silver lining for jetliner avionics manufacturers

Posted by John Keller

There seems to be a lot of bad news out there in the commercial aviation industry, which revolves around Boeing's report this week of a 50 percent reduction in first-quarter profits, and that the company also must reduce production of its widebody passenger jets because of weakening demand.

There seems to be a lot of bad news out there in the commercial aviation industry, which revolves around Boeing's report this week of a 50 percent reduction in first-quarter profits, and that the company also must reduce production of its widebody passenger jets because of weakening demand.

The aviation industry is hurting because the economy's on the ropes, homeowners are defaulting on mortgages, and folks are worried about losing their jobs. As a result, they're just not flying on commercial airlines as much as they used to, and airlines and aircraft manufacturers are feeling the pinch.

Airlines throughout the world are delaying deliveries of new aircraft they have ordered from Boeing, Airbus, and other airplane makers because right now there are too few passengers to put in the seats available. Furthermore, airlines are grounding some aircraft in their fleets because of sluggish passenger demand.

Sounds bad for the avionics industry, doesn't it? Maybe, but maybe not. The potential for avionics upgrades to existing aircraft may be the silver lining to this black cloud of the aviation economic downturn.

It's pretty clear that things will be tight in the avionics business for a while, but passenger aviation is bound to start picking up eventually. When it does, some aircraft operators may find it cheaper and faster to upgrade the avionics on grounded aircraft and put them back into service than to wait for new aircraft manufacturing to crank back up.

Not only that, but emerging requirements for NextGen satellite navigation and GPS-based air traffic control also will increase demand for avionics upgrades for existing commercial aircraft.

When we're ready to succumb to gloom and doom about the near-term prospect for new aircraft manufacturing, remember there are still a lot of aircraft out there waiting to get back into service. New avionics upgrades may be the way to make that happen very quickly.

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Potential F-22 cancellation may hurt military avionics suppliers

Posted by John McHale

Well, after months of speculation in the media, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced his plans last week for restructuring of the Department of Defense (DOD) including cutting the U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor program.

The decision not to produce any more F-22s may hit many in the military avionics and electronics industry in the gut especially at F-22 prime contractor Lockheed Martin. Reportedly Lockheed claims canceling this program would result in the loss of about 90,000 jobs.

I remember speaking to people from Lockheed in Ft. Worth, Texas, back when they won the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program and was told that people were crying with joy because the win would guarantee work for 30 to 40 years and mean they could send their children and grandchildren to college.

It hits every area of the community.

It won't just be Lockheed jobs that disappear, but many from the second and third tier suppliers that design avionics hardware and software for the F-22's advanced systems.

The loss of the F-22 will affect the companies that supply the mission computers, cockpit displays, real-time operating systems all the way down to the optical connectors.

These suppliers will still support the aircraft that have already been bought, but the loss of future orders will change their one, two, and five year outlooks drastically.

However, there will still be opportunities for designers of defense avionics and other electronics solutions. Gates says that the DOD will still support the JSF and increase funding for Special Forces operations to go after insurgents.

They are trying to restructure the military to better fight the War on Terror. Many in the current administration feel that the F-22 was designed to fight a more conventional type of war.

Therefore the DOD will still need electronics for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance more than ever before to help track down terrorists worldwide. This will come in the form of better communications and electro-optics capability for Special Forces, video and satellite surveillance technology, electronics for unmanned systems, etc.

Despite these opportunities, the loss of the F-22 will hurt, but we won't see how much for at least a year or two.

Some leaders in Congress reportedly protested the cut of the program claiming that cutting funding to help the warfighter is a mistake and only being done because the Obama administration wants to spend money anywhere else such as bailing out a failing General Motors.

I keep thinking of what Ronald Reagan said once during a debate with Jimmy Carter --that "a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours and recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his."

Something tells me some folks at Lockheed might want to swap out Jimmy Carter for someone else right now...

You be the judge.

If you want your baggage fly Northwest, not Delta

Posted by John McHale

If you don't want to lose your luggage fly Northwest not Delta... Wait a minute aren't they the same company? Yes, they are -- Delta bought Northwest last year -- but while they have many similarities, baggage tracking capability is not one of them, said Steve Gorman, executive vice president and chief operating officer for Delta Airlines.

Northwest ranks first in baggage handling while Delta is down near the bottom, Gorman said during his keynote address at the Avionics Maintenance Conference (AMC), run by the ARINC standards organization, in Minneapolis this morning.

Northwest has state-of-the art tracking software and scanners while Delta is just started adding modern baggage scanners recently, he continued. Gorman added that while all of Northwest will eventually be assimilated in Delta, its best practices and baggage expertise will be spread across Delta.

During his talk he spoke in depth about Delta's global reach and what Northwest brings to the company.

He said Delta's longest flight is from Atlanta to Bombay -- about 8,502 miles -- and its shortest is Detroit to Toledo -- 49 miles in 51 minutes gate to gate.

Sounds like less than 60 miles an hour...

Mapquest.com says it's only 57.82 miles from Detroit to Toledo -- about one hour and five minutes driving time.

If you fly the 51 minutes on Delta, you still have to add in another 60 minutes so you can check in and go through security. Then after getting luggage or catching a cab, maybe add another 30 minutes.

All said and done it's about two and half hours to fly 49 miles!

Is traffic that bad in Toledo that you need to fly from Detroit?

Optimism in tough times

In my last blog I discussed how the market for military avionics appears to be steady, but I was a bit surprised by the enthusiastic outlook for the global avionics market shown by attendees and exhibitors at last week's Avionics conference and exhibition that we put on in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

One exhibitor, Chip Downing of Wind River Systems, told me the avionics market is still quite strong, but the current economic climate might change especially on the commercial side, but not so much in the military market. He added that he still sees 2009 as a year of growth, but maybe not as strong as past years.

"The avionics market is up quite a bit," Doug Patterson of Aitech Defense Systems told me at the show. He said there is a strong trend in military and commercial applications to have more automation, taking the man out of the loop, which bodes well for avionics suppliers as they move toward next-generation avionics upgrades and the new air traffic management systems.

Officials from Seaweed Systems say they are seeing quite a lot of avionics business right now, and "haven't seen a downturn at all." Folks at Presagis echoed that, saying they see continued growth for themselves and their partners.

Esterline and Ruag Aerospace officials added that their military avionics business is steady and that they are developing long-term programs with key civil and commercial aerospace customers.

The keynote, Donald Ward, created some positive buzz of his own in discussing the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA's) efforts toward a next-generation air traffic management system -- or NextGEN. Ward, the FAA's Air Traffic Operations representative to Europe, said the FAA is looking to work more with industry and focus on business models that work.

The main thrust of his speech was urging the U.S. and Europe -- industry and government -- to work together to harmonize NextGEN and SESAR (Single European
Sky ATM Research) technologies. Ward said it is essential to have commonality between the two systems because the technology is too complicated to try to develop independently.

He added that it is also critical to involve the military each step of the way or "there will be major problems down the road."

Aside from Ward's keynote address the most popular session was the one we had on electronic flight bags and how they will be an instrumental tool in dealing with runway incursions.

Hope you got to see them.

Military market a bright spot for avionics suppliers

Reports are all over the Internet about how the tanking economy is killing jobs and revenue in the commercial aircraft market. News stories about Boeing and Airbus cutting back deliveries and major layoff announcements at Boeing and other companies are making headlines.

I even saw a story yesterday about how business jets manufacturers are taking a hit because such jets are seen as luxury items and bad press for companies taking federal bail outs.

Yet, as I travel to different trade shows and conferences for our sister publication Military & Aerospace Electronics, I find just the opposite outlook. Military avionics suppliers tell me they've never been so busy.

Many I talk to are cautiously optimistic based on their projected backlogs for 2009 and solid funding in the last budget of the Bush Administration. Come January 2010 will things be as positive? Will President Obama make deep cuts in his first defense budget, even canceling large programs such as Future Combat Systems? Or will he just cut back on procurement?

One industry source says he believes that it is republican administrations that cut programs, while democrats just cut back. That they are loathe to eliminate large programs as it could mean eliminating thousands of jobs.

Recent news reports are echoing that statement. They hint that Obama might not order any new F-22s, but that he will not kill the program all together.

In leiu of new programs and orders, Defense Department officials may spend funding on retrofits and upgrades of current systems.

Many avionics and other electronics suppliers to the defense community are forecasting growth based on that possibility.

Yes, the Army killed the Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter program, but the Apache upgrade is moving along and additional upgrades are planned for the Kiowa helicopter and the Black Hawk helicopter. Rockwell Collins also announced the first delivery of the Block I Modernization for the U.S. Navy's E-6B Mercury aircraft.

A dangerous world keeps defense suppliers busy and opportunities abound. That said it's not an easy market to break into and newcomers looking to offset losses in the commercial sector will have a hard time gaining a foothold in defense.